Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 106818.931835 112500.131249 118173.006082 124258.941031 130599.377750 137006.510215 143966.613481
2025-10-19 97667.529446 106372.199364 115298.311417 125124.628517 135626.928852 146504.062363 158609.632635
2025-10-26 90665.366799 101411.815707 112665.403158 125306.254635 139086.571078 153630.282881 170116.842126
2025-11-02 85452.599726 97743.267021 110841.758729 125802.981700 142380.287286 160147.125142 180589.574265
2025-11-09 80845.805025 94319.919608 108903.128439 125805.418159 144799.797421 165429.022346 189469.917486
2025-11-16 77734.210692 92298.864496 108279.720189 127042.005901 148389.050159 171842.906522 199479.640252
2025-11-23 74195.173601 89566.531815 106650.512456 126950.281236 150313.163872 176257.014892 207140.068916
2025-11-30 72131.501239 88387.097242 106664.084163 128616.522031 154141.382535 182755.721882 217125.095538
2025-12-07 69946.284610 86938.409288 106254.565699 129692.446244 157208.190553 188329.246328 226024.263118
2025-12-14 67360.347515 84893.778731 105039.206832 129725.141406 158976.166266 192342.643814 233082.651395
2025-12-21 65199.594457 83258.236832 104217.621566 130140.113036 161124.678602 196750.676067 240575.287263
2025-12-28 64105.949331 82849.397505 104804.314854 132187.124715 165175.199229 203377.076976 250685.876460
2026-01-04 62816.631862 82169.950465 105049.477237 133826.512229 168766.882398 209518.422216 260320.635053
2026-01-11 61206.648247 81035.759756 104694.361063 134700.730065 171417.102740 214541.286104 268653.006780
2026-01-18 59347.837086 79523.741749 103816.908362 134883.540412 173188.652206 218489.751344 275697.268556
2026-01-25 57771.701531 78309.273686 103255.162548 135408.910236 175343.450862 222881.007535 283276.470549
2026-02-01 56034.042867 76830.362423 102310.932699 135410.999736 176816.441797 226422.482657 289820.341741
2026-02-08 55012.782687 76231.291088 102437.517839 136724.264159 179895.590987 231920.509071 298768.348123
2026-02-15 53395.486156 74809.222776 101476.997653 136626.823897 181184.948015 235205.439485 305002.186544
2026-02-22 52704.610824 74569.678944 102001.390948 138396.321464 184809.371106 241378.433159 314824.465043
2026-03-01 51773.121636 73980.995473 102050.842756 139538.791482 187632.706248 246562.350569 323445.128344
2026-03-08 50405.891309 72773.096543 101263.464516 139573.507000 189026.531965 249953.356729 329838.546220
2026-03-15 49272.718001 71845.005439 100810.370516 140014.116514 190919.726637 253962.897455 337014.624340